After 2010, this is the second time that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has secured such a big win in the Bihar Assembly elections. In 2010, the alliance had secured 206 seats. This time, it has won 202. The tally of the opposition Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) is a pathetic 35. The NDA has won a decisive mandate. What do these 2025 Bihar Assembly election results imply? What do they foretell about Bihar?
We can begin with the social composition of the new Vidhan Sabha, which can reveal a lot about the sociopolitical present and future of Bihar. Of the 243 newly elected MLAs, 72 (26.93 per cent) are from Hindu upper castes, who form 10.57 per cent of the state’s population. The number of MLAs from the Hindu upper castes in proportion to their population would be around 26, but they are almost three times that number. The number of Hindu Backward Classes (BC) MLAs is 79, that is 32.51 per cent, and of Hindu Extremely Backward Classes (EBC) MLAs is 41 (16.87 per cent). The population of Hindu EBCs and Hindu BCs is almost equal and they together form 50.09 per cent of Bihar’s population. This means that the number of EBC and BC MLAs taken together should have been 121-122. The number today is 120. Their share in the Vidhan Sabha is 49.38 per cent, a tad lower than their share in the population.
Among the BCs, Yadavs, Kurmis and Kushwahas are dominant in the sociopolitical arena. Where do these castes stand vis-à-vis the upper caste Hindus in the 18th Vidhan Sabha? The number of Yadavs in the new Vidhan Sabha is 26, of Kurmis is 14 and of Kushwahas is 24. Their total number is 64, which is eight less than that of upper castes. This, when the combined population of the three BC castes is 21.34 per cent, which is almost twice the total population of four upper castes. Also noteworthy is that BC MLAs are seven more than upper-caste MLAs while the population of the backward classes is twice that of the upper castes.
In caste terms, Rajputs have the highest representation in the assembly. There are 32 Rajput MLAs, though Rajputs form just 3.54 per cent of the state’s population. Yadavs are 14.26 per cent of the population and have 26 representatives in the assembly. Going by their share in the population, the number of Rajput MLAs should have been eight and of Yadavs 34-35. The number of Bhumihars is 25, just one less than the Yadavs. The Bhumihars have a 2.86 per cent share in the population and going by that figure, there should have been seven of them in the assembly. Kurmis, whose share in population (2.87 per cent) is almost equal to that of the Bhumihars, have 14 MLAs. The Kushwaha population at 4.21 per cent is more than Bhumihar and Rajput, and are represented by 24 MLAs. They are thus far behind the Rajputs and two less than the Bhumihars. Brahmins, who form 3.65 per cent of the population – highest among the upper castes – have 13 MLAs. Going by their share in population, their number should have been nine. The number of Kayastha MLAs is two – more or less proportionate to their population.
Among EBCs, the Teli are considered an influential caste. Their population is almost equal to that of the Bhumihars but the number of Bhumihar MLAs is almost three times the number of Teli MLAs.
To sum up, the proportion of Rajputs in the Bihar Assembly is four times their proportion in the population, Bhumihars are 3.5 times, Brahmins 1.5 times, and Kayasthas are almost proportionate. The Kushwaha MLAs are more than twice their share in population, Kurmis are twice, Banias are a shade less than twice and Dhanuks and Telis slightly higher than their share in population. Surprisingly, the number of Yadav MLAs is nine less than what it should have been on the basis of their share in the total population.
Needless to say, the ratio of any community’s share in the assembly to its share in the population is indicative of its political clout. These figures tell us that now the upper castes are politically much more influential than the BC-EBC Hindus and there is no BC or EBC caste that can match the clout of Rajputs and Bhumihars.
In the assembly elected in 2020, the number of Hindu upper-caste MLAs was 64, that is 26.33 per cent. In the new assembly, their numbers are up by eight and their percentage by 3.3. Of the Hindu upper-caste MLAs, the highest 42 are from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The Janata Dal United (JDU) has sent the second highest number of upper-caste MLAs (18). They are followed by Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas Paswan) [LJP(R)], which has seven upper-caste MLAs, Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha which has two and Jeetanram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), which has one. The Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) – the leading party in the INDIA alliance – has only two upper-caste MLAs – both Bhumihars. Of the 72 upper-caste MLAs, 70 are from the NDA. In 2020, 70.31 per cent upper-caste MLAs were from the NDA. The corresponding figure this time is 97.22 per cent. In 2020, of the upper-caste MLAs, 51.56 per cent were elected on a BJP ticket and 14.06 came from the JDU. This time, 58.33 per cent are from BJP and 25 per cent from the JDU. In 2020, of the 74 BJP MLAs, 33 (44.52 per cent) were upper-caste. This time, out of the party’s 89 MLAs, 42 (47.19 per cent) are from one or the other upper caste. Of the 85 JDU MLAs, 18 (21.17 per cent) are upper-caste. Thus, cumulatively, 35.64 per cent of the NDA MLAs are upper-caste. It is clear that the BJP has emerged as a party representing the interests of the upper castes, whose MLAs also have a sizeable presence in other parties of the NDA.
The upper castes have not only gained an upper hand but they have rallied around the NDA. It’s official now that the upper castes will have a greater control on the levers of power in Bihar than earlier.
In many ways, the outcome of the 2025 polls is historic. The number of Yadavs in the assembly has plummeted. Since 1990, it is for the first time that an upper caste has the highest number of MLAs in the assembly and the numerically biggest Hindu caste, Yadav, have only 26 – just 10.69 per cent of the strength of the House. In 2010, when the NDA had scored a bigger win than this time, the share of upper castes had grown to 32.51 per cent – almost equal to 1990. Even then, the Yadav had the most MLAs. Their number was 39 (16.4 per cent). However, even this was the lowest in the period from 1990 to 2010. In the assembly elected in 2010, of the 39 Yadavs, 27 were from the NDA, including 19 from JDU, eight from BJP and 10 from RJD. This time, the number of Yadav MLAs from RJD is 11 and from NDA is 13, of which seven are from JDU, four from BJP and two from LJP.
Besides Yadavs, the representation of Muslims in the Bihar Vidhan Sabha has plummeted to a historic low. There are only 11 Muslim MLAs, who form just 4.52 per cent of the assembly. Muslims constitute 17.70 per cent of the state’s population, which should have translated to 43 MLAs. In the assembly elected in 2010, there were 19 (7.8 per cent) Muslim MLAs, of which seven were from the JDU and one was from the BJP. In the assembly elected in 2015, the number of Muslim MLAs was 24. In 2020, their numbers dropped to 19. In the new assembly, the All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen( AIMIM) has the highest number of Muslim MLAs – five. The RJD has three Muslim MLAs, the Congress has two and the JDU has one. Thus, the representation of upper castes has soared while the number of Muslim and Yadav MLAs is at a historic low.
Compared to 2010, the number of Yadav NDA MLAs has dropped by 14 and of Muslims by seven. The drop in the representation of these two numerically large communities overall is clearly due to the NDA giving a boost to the political clout of the upper castes at the cost of these two communities. This is bound to lead to a change in the power equations.
On the surface, the 2025 results seem similar to those of 2010. Dig a little deeper and much has changed in these 15 years. Deciphering that change is crucial to arriving at any conclusion regarding the political future of Bihar. In 2010, of the 206 seats won by the NDA, the JDU led the way with 115 seats, followed by the BJP with 91 seats. In the latest elections, the RJD has been confined to just 22 seats. In 2015, the RJD and the JDU were in an alliance, with the former leading in terms of number of seats won. With 53 seats, the BJP was third. But the JDU-RJD alliance did not last long and Nitish Kumar returned to the NDA. Meanwhile, with the BJP’s rise at the national level, it turned increasingly aggressive. In 2020, the BJP, as part of its agenda of taking total control of Bihar, tried to use Chirag Paswan to finish off Nitish Kumar. As a result, the JDU ended up as the third biggest party in the House with 43 seats. The BJP was still behind the RJD in the seat tally with 74.
In 2020, Nitish Kumar did become the chief minister in the NDA government but for the first time, he was a junior partner, with the BJP in the lead. He went on to realign with the RJD briefly but then, just before the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, was back with the NDA. Now, Nitish Kumar’s position is even weaker. It is clear that he will merely be a puppet and that the BJP will impose its agenda on him. It was not without reason that after his return to the NDA, Nitish Kumar has kept quiet on the demand for including the expanded reservation quota on the basis of the caste survey in the Ninth Schedule of the Constitution. This, despite the fact that it was under his leadership that the state assembly had passed a Bill allocating 65 per cent reservation quota to SC-STs and EBC-BCs in the wake of the caste survey. In this connection, a decision of the state government announced on the eve of the 2025 assembly elections assumes significance. The government decided to lease out 1,050 acres of land acquired for setting up a thermal power plant in Pirpainti in Bhagalpur district to Narendra Modi’s darling Adani at the rate of Re 1 per acre per year.
This time, the BJP’s tally is 89 – two down from 2010 – and it is the single-largest party in the new assembly. The JDU, with 85 seats – 30 less than 2010 – is BJP’s junior partner. The NDA’s tally of 202 includes 29 seats won by allies other than the BJP and the JDU. The JDU has the highest number of seats since 2010. But in 2010, Nitish Kumar was the dominant partner. Now, he has ceded this position to the BJP. Nitish Kumar has no option but to be a puppet of the BJP.
In the new Nitish Kumar-led 27-member council of ministers, eight are from the upper castes, five from EBCs and eight from OBCs. Then, there are five Dalits and a Muslim. The composition of the assembly and the council of ministers signals the increased political clout of the upper castes who now have a greater control over the levers of power. For the first time, the Home Department has been given to a BJP minister. Samrat Chaudhary, who is a deputy chief minister, will hold the Home portfolio in the new government. Chaudhary is already talking the language of Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Adityanath. It is clear that Bihar is on the way to becoming a graveyard of social justice and a playground for corporate czars.
(Translated from the original Hindi by Amrish Herdenia)
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