Maharashtra Assembly Elections: Latest casualty of the OBC tsunami is Eknath Shinde

Continued from the first part  

Until the year 2013, the Maratha reservation issue was confined to social discourse. There were no sit-ins, agitations, hunger strikes or processions in support of the demand. It was not a political issue at all. But that year, Congress’s Prithviraj Chavan had a Bill granting reservations to the Marathas passed in the Assembly and from then on, the political equations in Maharashtra began changing due to OBC polarization against Marathas. Every party that accorded political importance to Maratha reservation was punished by the OBCs in the very next election. In 2014, Prithviraj Chavan lost the chief ministership and in 2019, Devendra Fadnavis met the same fate. And with them, the rule of their respective parties also ended. And now, Eknath Shinde is on the verge of losing his chief ministership.  

If Eknath Shinde of the Shiv Sena has almost lost chief ministership, it is because the OBCs voted for the BJP in a big way. Shinde’s strike rate of 70 per cent paled before Fadnavis’ 88 per cent. There is a big difference of 75 seats between the two parties. And it is an open secret that it was basically because of Fadnavis that the OBCs voted for the parties of Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar. So, Shinde’claim to chief ministership has weakened considerably, thanks to the OBC voters.

It may be noted here that in 2018 the then chief minister Fadnavis had granted 16 per cent reservation to the Marathas. This was shot down by the Supreme Court on 5 May 2021, when the state was being ruled by the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) led by chief minister Uddhav Thackeray. After the Supreme Court’s verdict, the issue was put into cold storage. As long as Thackeray remained chief minister, no one talked about Maratha reservation and there were no marches in support of the demand. MVA supremo Sharad Pawar did not utter a word on Maratha reservation – in fact he had never done so earlier either. But after the MVA government collapsed and was replaced by the Maha Yuti, Pawar decided to wrest control of Maratha reservation movement. To hijack the movement, Pawar manufactured the Jarange factor and tasked former minister and Nationalist Congress party leader Rajesh Tope with managing the daily affairs of the movement.    

Fadnavis, who knew from experience that chief ministers who granted reservation to the Marathas, were ousted from office by the OBCs, placed the ball firmly in the court of Maratha chief minister Eknath Shinde and using the good offices of Jarange, earned the label of an anti-Maratha leader. On the other hand, Pawar focused on the Martha vote bank, also using the good offices of Jarange. The NCP aided Jarange financially and politically to such an extent that it ballooned into an uncontrollable force and triggered anti-OBC violence. 

Sharad Pawar, being a progressive and a Gandhian, believes in non-violence. The OBCs have considered him their own, as he, along with OBC leader Chhagan Bhujbal, had played a significant role in implementing the report of the Mandal Commission in Maharashtra. But he got so engrossed in boosting the Jarange factor that he even cast away his progressive character and allowed Jarange and company to trigger violence. Pawar is known for his decency in politics. But he allowed the Jarange factor to turn abusive, violent and threatening. To appease the Jarange factor, Pawar personally addressed anti-OBC public meetings in the constituencies of Bhujbal and Munde, which emboldened the Jarange factor even further to indulge in abusive and violent behaviour towards the OBC leaders.  

Journalists were persuaded to write articles eulogizing the Jarange factor and speeches singing paeans to Jarange factor were uploaded on YouTube channels and made viral. Due to Pawar’s encouragement, Jarange factor turned into an unbridled horse. Had Pawar pulled up Jarange in time, further violence could have been stopped, he may have retained some of his support base among the OBCs and would not have met with this political disaster. The OBCs would have at least given him a face-saving 16 seats – equal to the Congress’s tally. But if someone is out to commit political suicide, how can the OBCs be blamed for it.   

Election results (2014-2024) 

It is worth noting that while Sharad Pawar was the producer of the Jarange factor, Rajesh Tope was its director. When the OBCs taught a lesson to the producer, how could they have spared the director? The OBCs ensured Tope’s defeat from the Ghansawangi seat. The OBC tsunami also swept away Balasaheb Thorat, who was the chief ministerial aspirant from the Congress camp, former Congress chief minister Prithviraj Chavan and heavyweight Maratha leaders like Yashomati Thakur and Bacchu Kadu. Barring Ram Shinde, all the OBC candidates of leading parties won with huge margins. Two top OBC leaders had lost the Lok Sabha elections but it has been amply compensated by the victory of a fair number of OBC leaders in these assembly elections.

My analysis may invoke scepticism in some circles. If the 52 per cent OBC vote proved decisive in the OBC-versus-Maratha battle and Maratha parties lost, then how did Eknath Shinde’s Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP – both Maratha parties – win? If the OBCs have firmly turned against the Marathas, how could these two Maratha parties garner an impressive number of seats? Why did the OBC voters back these Maratha parties? 

Read the third part here.

(Translated from the Hindi by Amrish Herdenia)